10 Nov · 16:20 MEZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1514
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Skotniczny
WP
🇵🇱Wiktor Ptak
ELO 1472
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
🌟Ptak stays under total as underdog 67% (45)
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)