10 Nov · 16:40 MEZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1498
FormWWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Zochniak
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1576
FormWLLWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Zochniak
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H23-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-10)