10 Nov · 18:25 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇵🇱Jan Orszulik
ELO 1469
FormWWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Koczyba
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1515
FormLLWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H10-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-3)