10 Nov · 20:30 MEZLow · Coin Flip
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1259
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wisniewski
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1249
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H46-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.