28 Jun · 17:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1500
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mucha
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1507
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Mucha
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.