5 Jul · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1556
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Karpiuk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1590
FormLWLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.