11 Jul · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SJ
🇵🇱Slawomir Janus
ELO 1568
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Karpiuk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1592
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (31)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.