12 Jul · 04:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TK
🇵🇱Tomasz Kocik
ELO 1508
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Karpiuk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1547
FormLWLLL
46%
54%
🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (31)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.