15 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1495
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Karpiuk
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1483
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (52)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.