15 Jul · 20:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1495
FormWWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Karpiuk
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1425
FormWWLLL
58%
42%
🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (52)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+70
H2H1-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)