19 Jul · 21:40 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1501
FormWWLLW
63%Win chancemodel fair 1.59Karpiuk
PC
🇵🇱Pawel Chojnacki
ELO 1377
FormLLWLL
63%
37%
🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (63)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 63% · 1.59vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~77 pts
3-1
25%
3-0
23%
3-2
16%
1-3
14%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+124
H2H6-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+124)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-2)