20 Jul · 00:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
PC
🇵🇱Pawel Chojnacki
ELO 1362
FormLLLLL
65%Win chancemodel fair 1.54Karpiuk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1504
FormLWWWW
35%
65%
🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (63)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 65% · 1.54vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~76 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
24%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+142
H2H7-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+142)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-2)