20 Jul · 02:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1504
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skorupa
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1523
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
🌟Karpiuk goes over total as underdog 66% (32)
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.