8 Aug · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1495
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mucha
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1501
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Karpiuk goes over total as underdog 65% (48)
Fair odds · Mucha
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.