12 Aug · 21:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇵🇱Janus Slawomir
ELO 1497
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Slawomir
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1491
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Karpiuk🌟Karpiuk goes over total as underdog 67% (61)
Fair odds · Slawomir
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.