13 Aug · 00:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1444
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Karpiuk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1495
FormWWLLL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machelski🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (82)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)