13 Aug · 06:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1427
FormWLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Karpiuk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1496
FormWLWWL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machelski🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (82)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)