13 Aug · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KD
🇵🇱Kamil Delikatny
ELO 1517
FormWLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Delikatny
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1516
FormWWWWL
50%
50%
🌟Karpiuk goes over total as underdog 67% (61)
Fair odds · Delikatny
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.