13 Aug · 22:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1504
FormWWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Karpiuk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1507
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Karpiuk🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (82)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.