13 Aug · 23:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1507
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Karpiuk
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Cyndera
ELO 1504
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (82)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.