14 Aug · 04:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Miroslaw Lewczuk
ELO 1577
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lewczuk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1515
FormLWLWW
57%
43%
🌟Lewczuk covers set handicap as favourite 70% (30)
Fair odds · Lewczuk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)