14 Aug · 05:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1508
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cyndera
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Cyndera
ELO 1514
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Karpiuk🌟Cyndera rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (23)
Fair odds · Cyndera
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.