16 Aug · 18:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1420
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Karpiuk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1506
FormLWLLW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Machelski🌟Karpiuk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (82)
Fair odds · Karpiuk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+86
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)