19 Aug · 21:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇵🇱Janus Slawomir
ELO 1531
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Slawomir
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1501
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Karpiuk🌟Karpiuk goes over total as underdog 65% (72)
Fair odds · Slawomir
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.