19 Aug · 23:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1671
FormWLWWW
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Tkaczyk
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1511
FormWLWLL
67%
33%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 66% (56)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~77 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
25%
3-2
17%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+160
H2H11-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+160)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-3)