3 Oct · 21:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1600
FormWWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Fomin
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1535
FormWLLWW
57%
43%
🌟Karpiuk goes over total as underdog 64% (130)
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+65
H2H5-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)