17 Oct · 20:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1559
FormWWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Mucha
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1491
FormLLWLL
58%
42%
🌟Karpiuk goes over total as underdog 64% (132)
Fair odds · Mucha
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 1.99· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H14-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-10)