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17 Oct · 20:45 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
CPCezary Pawlik
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1671
2-3Final setsKarpiuk won
MKMateusz Karpiuk
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1513
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Pawlik at 68%. The actual result was Mateusz Karpiuk 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Cezary Pawlik favoured — closing 1.45
Upset
Set handicap
Cezary Pawlik −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Cezary Pawlik −5.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Cezary Pawlik is favoured to win, below means Mateusz Karpiuk.

▲ Cezary Pawlikpre 66% → final 75%
Mateusz Karpiuk ▼
Biggest swing 66 ptsPawlik recovered from 29%72 points · 5 games