17 Oct · 23:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1539
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skorupa
MK
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1513
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Karpiuk🌟Karpiuk goes over total as underdog 64% (132)
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.