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25 Oct · 02:10 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
TKTomasz Kocik
🇵🇱Tomasz Kocik
ELO 1680
2-3Final setsKarpiuk won
MKMateusz Karpiuk
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1492
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kocik at 70%. The actual result was Mateusz Karpiuk 2-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Kocik favoured — closing 1.3
Upset
Set handicap
Kocik −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Kocik −6.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Tomasz Kocik is favoured to win, below means Mateusz Karpiuk.

▲ Tomasz Kocikpre 68% → final 36%
Mateusz Karpiuk ▼
Biggest swing 65 ptsKarpiuk recovered from 28%72 points · 5 games