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07 Nov · 17:35 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MKMateusz Karpiuk
🇵🇱Mateusz Karpiuk
ELO 1504
3-2Final setsKarpiuk won
AFAndriej Fomin
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1503
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Fomin at 50%. The actual result was Mateusz Karpiuk 3-2 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Andriej Fomin favoured — closing 1.7
Upset
Total 78.5
96 points played
Over
Set handicap
Andriej Fomin −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Andriej Fomin −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.5
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mateusz Karpiuk is favoured to win, below means Andriej Fomin.

▲ Mateusz Karpiukpre 54% → final 99%
Andriej Fomin ▼
Biggest swing 65 ptsKarpiuk recovered from 35%72 points · 5 games